Geneva, Easter Sunday (12 April) 2020

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Let’s stay with the theme of lies and truth. Yesterday, I went off on epidemiological statistics about this pandemic being manipulated or misrepresented. This is nothing compared with the big league of bio-untruths: political propaganda and conspiracy theories.

A number of people have asked me about the possible origin of this particular coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Is it really from a wild animal food market in Wuhan? Is it from bats? Is it from a pangolin? Is it linked to the biosecurity lab in Wuhan? Was there a governmental cover-up in the early stages of the epidemic there? Was it imported to China from America? My only credentials for commenting on this come from having worked on the project “Biotechnology, Weapons and Humanity” during my time with the International Committee of the Red Cross; this involved no small interaction with states’ representatives to the UN’s 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (Full title: Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction. Let’s just say “BWC.”) This is a disarmament convention of the highest importance to international security and therefore to humanity; this is why 183 nations are party to it. Within the BWC discourse, genuine concerns and well-founded suspicions can be voiced although most can only be viewed through smoke and mirrors. It is also a field that attracts a whole host of conspiracies and fallacies; you get used to these and learn to recognise them from a safe distance.

The BWC has an interesting history. It was first proposed to the international community by the USA because American scientists managed to convince the Nixon administration that biological weapons were of no military value as long as they, the USA, had nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union saw the wisdom of this and eagerly came on board (but carried on with their bio-weapons programmes anyway.) In rather typical disarmament double-dweeble, biological weapons became known as the poor man’s nuclear weapon whilst nuclear weapons states claimed they needed their nuclear weapons to deter any threat of use of biological weapons. Within this, the health community (read WHO) whilst understandably wishing to avoid getting mired in the international security implications, stipulated that whether the cause of an epidemic was natural or man-made, the public health response would be the same. This is a stance that I have always fundamentally disagreed with. If an epidemic were ever seen as an intentional act of a state, group or individual, the reaction would obviously involve a public health element but this would be embedded in and ultimately subsumed by a huge security response that would not exclude use of military force. Making a distinction between a natural outbreak and the intentional spread of disease is very, very important. 

Here are my thoughts. This pandemic is serious enough. We do not need American commentators saying the virus came from a Chinese bioweapons lab and we do not need Chinese commentators saying the virus originated in an American bioweapons lab. Both sides know that such claims represent barely veiled accusations of violation of the BWC. No state takes this lightly. Raising the spectre of bioweapons in relation to this pandemic through accusation is very, very dangerous. 

The UN Secretary General, António Guterres, a good man who doesn’t miss a trick, addressed the Security Council three days ago. The sixth of eight risks to international security he identified in relation to the pandemic was that “the weaknesses and lack of preparedness exposed by this pandemic provide a window onto how a bioterrorist attack might unfold – and may increase its risks. Non-state groups could gain access to virulent strains that could pose similar devastation to societies around the globe.” Those familiar with BWC speak will recognise that this is as close as he can go to making reference to state-backed bio-weapons programmes. He knows that the line between state on “non-state” activity in this domain is not clear and bright; he also knowns that if a non-state actor were to use a biological warfare agent to intentionally spread disease, the most likely source of that agent would be a state programme.

So above you have my thoughts about the propaganda, theories and all other loony-baloony stuff that is circulating like the virus itself. Here is my advice. Bear in mind that any assessment of whether or not there’s a sinister cause for this outbreak can only be made authoritatively by a UN Security Council mechanism and that would involve a neutral stance, a ton of diplomacy, the best of science, the coolest of heads and time. Don’t believe anything unless it comes direct from Mr Guterres.

Given the above, it may seem to be of little import but… I won the putting competition today on the first play-off hole. That’s 14 games to 6.

Geneva, Saturday 11 April 2020

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Another beautiful day in the time of lockdown. The geraniums have been taken out of hibernation and the balcony is looking spruce and ready for spring amid a flurry of replanting, potting out, feeding and trimming. Nice! 

The abandoned putting match from two days ago was completed yesterday evening. I won on the fifth play-off hole. I’m up now by 13 games to 6. Plenty of matches still to be played especially as we now have an extension of the lockdown until at least 26 April. The official reason is “the number of infections of the new corona virus continues to rise.” Statistics!

My friend Nathan from Toronto is a statistician. He’s just about the brainiest bloke I know. You should understand that statisticians look upon epidemiologists as bumbling amateurs when it comes to data, graphs and stuff. I once quipped “But you can tell lies with statistics!” Nathan scratched that mighty head and replied “Sure! You can tell lies with statistics. You can tell lies without statistics. It’s just much more difficult to tell lies with statistics. If you do, you get caught out.” Doesn’t this just apply to the COVID-19 pandemic? And guess who is lying with and without statistics willy nilly? Yup, the same guy who said two weeks ago “Everything indicates this will be over by Easter!” Hmmm… What’s “Everything”? And it’s Easter now, Big Boy. You got caught out in the lie and, furthermore, the state of New York alone now has more cases – and rising – than any other country. Today’s White House statement that “The outbreak is starting to level off” may or may not be true but sits in such a background of lies and political obfuscation that it’s hard to know what to believe. Go listen to Nathan. He’s just over the border. He’ll tell you what you can and can’t say with the statistics you have at hand. Having said this, at least the White House provides a veneer of data-to-policy speak unlike the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, who believes in no policy at all (other than vodka) because he can’t see any coronaviruses flying about!

Moving closer to home, I’m not accusing the Swiss government of lying with statistics but they are certainly taking advantage of the different ways that statistics can be presented. “The number of infections of the new corona virus continues to rise” is a correct statement. An equally correct statement is “the number of new infections of the new corona virus reported each day is falling.” The Johns Hopkins coronavirus website shows graphs to support both statements. Whilst the first statement clearly justifies the extended lockdown; the second shows we are probably past the peak of the epidemic curve and so might lead people to think that the job is done, the pandemic has passed, and the extension to the lockdown is unnecessary…. so let’s party!

If I were in charge of communicating the Swiss stats, I would go with the first statement (after consulting with Nathan.) Here’s why: the number of any country’s COVID-19 cases in relation to its population (so calculating cases per capita) is, I would argue, more meaningful in terms of progress of the epidemic. For Switzerland this figure is 0.28% and for the USA it’s 0.15%. (Figures for these calculations again sourced from Johns Hopkins and worldometer.) In other words, we are far from finished with this story here. I tell no lies! 

I learnt another pearl of statistical wisdom from Nathan. It is that we use statistics ultimately for one purpose only: to tell us what is going to happen. It’s a kind of mathematical crystal ball. So remember this, if we are given statistics that propagate lies, these lies determine our future.

Even closer to home – and this might be of interest to other Geneva-dwellers – we have from our balcony a fine view to the east of a mountain called le Salève (see photo above.) The Swiss-French border is right at the bottom of this steep, rocky slope. It is a source of some annoyance to Geneva residents that our view of this beautiful mountain is spoilt by the French quarrying many tons of stone from it. No-one actually living in France can see this eye-sore and so no French politician will lose votes as a result of it. I look that way ten times a day and yesterday evening, I noticed a large black smudge right in the middle of the quarry. It must be about the size of a couple of football fields and it has only appeared in the last days. Have they struck oil? If so, that’ll really ruin the view!

Geneva, Friday 10 April 2020

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Lockdown Easter holiday! I thought it was high time to pay tribute to my extraordinary older brother, Garth; especially as he’s doing lockdown on his own in Norwich, UK. His facebook pages carry all the evidence I need to tell you about his many and varied talents. Here it comes, Bro with lots of love all the way from locked down Switzerland… 

Here he is, aged 6 with a Grass Snake (Natrix matrix). I wonder if our parents knew then that Garth would become one of the UK’s great experts on reptiles and amphibians and a lauded wildlife photographer and illustrator. But I’m leaping ahead here.

A rare photo of Garth at about twelve years old doing something useful. Don’t be fooled by the apparent wholesome lawn-mowing stuff; this was the year he introduced me, at the age of 8, to cigarettes. I puffed away at anything I could get my hands on until, one year later, Mother found me smoking at the bottom of the garden. I haven’t smoked since!

From a young age, Garth was very good at drawing. This talent bloomed throughout his rather rebellious adolescent years. On leaving school, he went on to Art School in Great Yarmouth. From there, he joined the design team at Rowntree-Mackintosh of chocolate-making fame. One of his dossiers was Quality Street. Here’s his take on Major Quality Street wooing Miss Sweetly.

I’ve never quite understood why, but all of a sudden he decided to join the police… In Glasgow. Didn’t he get into a few scrapes up there! After some years, he moved south to the Metropolitan Police in London and, after a few years down there, finally came back to Norfolk to walk the beat of his home town. For the last years of his police career, he served as an instructor for new recruits and developed the country’s first course on enforcing the 1981 Wildlife and Countryside Act.

In 1993, I published a surgical textbook. It sold 3,000 copies. Under the name “Donald McDonald,” Garth published a book of cartoons about only one operation. Let’s call it “adult humour.” Putting my nose only slightly out of joint, it sold 30,000 copies in the first year. He used a nom de plume because he didn’t want Mother to know.  Of course, it didn’t take long before someone spilled the beans. She bought twenty copies and gave them to her friends at church! 

Around this time, he got into stand-up comedy. His “Mad McDuff” character with authentic Glaswegian accent brought the house down. The high point of the act was a ferret coming out from under his kilt.

This is a photograph that Garth took in 2006. It is a head-to-tail pair of Limax maximus slugs mating. Huge beasts they are. That white mushroomy thing is an erection! In the world of gastropods, it is the rarest of events and only happens at night. A BBC wildlife TV crew heard about this nature-nutty copper who had the lowdown on sluggy love. As a result, they were the first to capture the slugs’ extraordinary ritual on film. It was broadcast in early 2007. It is truly amazing.

“Got anything else like this for us, Garth?” The BBC crew asked. “Sure” he replied. “Do you want to see the rarest spider in the UK?” Of course they did! So, off they went to the only location in the British Isles where Segestria florentina is known to exist: Westminster Abbey. They filmed and later broadcast Garth coaxing one of these rare beasties out of one of the Abbey’s stoney crevices using a tuning fork to imitate the buzzing of a web-encaptured fly. 

When I go back to Norwich, we usually do one of his “Norfolk Safaris.” Last year I asked if we could find an adder (Viperidae Vipera.) No problem; Garth took me to one his hot spots and showed me a whole nest!

After retirement, he spent a couple of years out in Australia to be closer to his son and daughter who now live out there. Inevitably, he got right into the wildlife; it was paradise for a herpetologist. He photographed and made illustrations of hundreds of Aussie frog species drawing accolades from all sorts of natural history societies. Yes, the above picture of Great Barred frogs (Mixophyes fasciolatus) is a water-colour painting!

That’s him in the middle. Garth, a.k.a. Flyman with his band “The Divide.” Their original songs were largely written by him and his guitarist son Ross (not pictured here.) The band have been together for fifteen years and enjoy quite a following in Norfolk. I love their lyrics. How about this from a song entitled “Monkeys”: “I’m top of the tree since climbing down, you see. What went before were Monkeys, making Man of me. I’m the number one; got the fire and the gun. I’ll kill if it’s in my way. I’m just having fun! Now don’t be blaming me. It’s just a blueprint in my head. It’s all genetic circuitry and it’ll see me dead. It’s my Human nature that lays down what I will be. That same old Human nature made a Monkey out of me.”

Not content with pumping out their very loud stuff to an adoring public, Garth and Ross put together a promotional double disc for a rock show. The theme is the life of bees and how their lifestyle can teach us humans about looking after the environment. Kinda topical!

His most recent work is a pen and ink with watercolour illustration for a scientific journal. It’s a male Great Green Bush-cricket (Tettigonia viridissima) on Stinging nettles (Urtica dioica.) I think he improves with age.

And here he is, my amazing and talented brother Garth (Homo sapiens), doing what he does best. Of course, there was always Bruce, the middle brother, who died suddenly in 2017. Bruce was the solid, reliable, sensible and handsome one of the three of us. He kept us in order. We both miss him terribly.